MSM is pitching a lot of polls that might suggest that Joe Biden was ahead. You even have a CNN poll claiming that Biden was up 16 points.
But even Biden himself poo pooed that poll and said don’t be taken in by that, get out and vote.
Which means that Biden knows that that’s nonsense, and it’s much closer.
As I previously wrote, Biden wouldn’t be sending folks to Nevada and New Hampshire if he wasn’t seeing things that indicated a problem in those two states which previously were thought to be sure blue in his corner. Biden wouldn’t be suddenly activating people on the ground to go out and knock on doors in ‘battleground states’ if he didn’t think he desperately needed to do it, after doing nothing no reaching out to voters on the ground in person since March.
The MSM polls often have some major flaws: oversampling of Democrats, failure to account for the
shy Trump vote and often using registered voters rather than likely voters.
There are a few things that show why Biden may be justifiably panicking, as Townhall observes.
First, the fact that young people are not going to be coming out in greater numbers according to a Hill-Harris poll. Every presidential election they pitch to the young and every time, they show they don’t come out.
JUST OUT: Hill-Harris X research documents that Younger Voters are not excited about this election. Note one of their Headlines:
"Hill-Harris X Research Shows Younger Voters Are Consistently More Likely to Say They Do Not Plan to Vote…"
Video below:https://t.co/2nm73wHcpQ
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 9, 2020
5) On YOUNGER VOTERS:
“We believe . . . there are going to be significantly fewer younger voters.”
“We think there will be at least a million fewer votes from that group in total.”
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 7, 2020
The young tend skew left. But the left is not particularly enthusiastic about Joe Biden.
Second, according to Zogby, Trump’s approval is up over 51%.
Zogby Analytics:
Trump Approval at 51%
(poll released on Oct 9; 833 likely voters; conducted 9/25-27) pic.twitter.com/cvTLFBlvH3
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 9, 2020
That’s significant because as Gallup notes, historically, “all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost.”
Poll Watch also did an interview with Patrick Basham about the Democracy Institute poll, which showed likely voters had Trump leading nationally and which confirmed the “shy Trump vote.”
2) It was because Democracy Institute shifted from a 2-way to a 4-way race. He believes some are “parking their votes” with 3rd-party candidates. He senses some of these will move back to Trump or Biden, with more going to Trump. He also thinks more undecideds will go for Trump.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 7, 2020
4) “Those are votes for Trump that if they come in are going to surprise people because they are the ones who are least expected to support him.”
There is even a shy Trump vote in MD-7 (Kim Klacik district)
Says Klacik is doing great in the race. @kimKBaltimore
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 7, 2020
How big is that “shy Trump vote?” It’s of course hard to say. But Democracy Institute thinks it is even a bigger number than it was the first time, even indicating the shy vote in Maryland in Kim Klacik’s race. That should really worry worry Democrats and that may be part of what is worrying Biden.
Basham explains why Trump suddenly has a chance in New Hampshire.
6) OTHER NOTABLES:
New Hampshire is a mini-Minnesota. The war and peace issue is big in NH. NH likes Trump’s refusal to go to war.
Trump is “in very very good shape there [NH].”
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 7, 2020
That’s why Biden rushed people to New Hampshire.
Biden blinked on taking out Osama, but had no problem sending Americans off to endless wars. Trump on the other hand, didn’t blink when he needed to act, taking out Qassem Soleimani and Abu Bakr al Baghdadi but he hasn’t started new wars.
Basham is confident about Trump taking Florida, perhaps the most critical battleground state.
7) Basham is confident Trump will win Florida. Trump can’t take FL for granted but, “Florida at the moment is bordering on comfortable for Trump.”
He believes Florida is getting beyond Biden’s grasp.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 7, 2020
Trump +3 in Florida seems about right. Our estimate at this point is a 2-3% Trump lead in FL. https://t.co/suTgyYNoft
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 9, 2020
Also don’t assume that a Democratic registration means they’re voting for Biden.
8) “There will be a greater number of Trump Democrats in 2020.”
Trump is leading in Minn. and Penn.
Thanks to “Cotto/Gottfried” for the interview. Watch and consider subscribing:https://t.co/foOffI4pXM
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 7, 2020
Arizona, which some worried might be flipping blue, isn’t, according to PollWatch.
Recent Republican registration gains in AZ and the new Trafalgar poll showing Trump +4 in AZ, are good news for Trump.
It will be tight, but it's looking more likely Trump will carry Arizona.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 9, 2020
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #Arizona #BattlegroundState #poll conducted Oct 6-8 shows Trump expanding his lead to 4%:
47.8% @realDonaldTrump,
43.8% @JoeBiden,
2.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.6% Other,
4.6% Und. See Report: https://t.co/utw0gpAOQW pic.twitter.com/W0SoQYCqbp— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 9, 2020
We’ll find out soon, but let’s hope it’s a completely slam dunk victory to prevent any effort to try to take it away in the courts or any funny business with mail in voting.
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